June 17, 2004

Revisionist History In The Making

The headline from Reuters says Hiring Plans Near Boom Levels-Survey.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. companies are gearing up to create jobs at rates not seen since the height of the 1990s boom, a survey released on Tuesday showed, adding to evidence that job growth will keep the U.S. economic recovery rolling.

[snip]

Thirty percent of polled U.S. employers plan to add to their payrolls in the July to September period, the survey by Manpower Inc. showed. That is up from 20 percent a year earlier and 28 percent in the April to June period.

[snip]


But if you look at the Manpower Inc. summary of the report, or better yet the actual survey (warning: PDF file - Adobe Reader [aka Acrobat] required), you might see something a little bit different:

Here's the headline of the Manpower Inc. summary of the report: Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for Second Quarter Reveals Strongest U.S. Job Prospects Since the Bush regime usurped power Beginning Months of 2001 (Funny Farm reminder: pRezNit Never Thinks He's Wrong's handlers got the keys to the WhiteWash House at the end of January, 2001)

Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with employers across the United States to measure anticipated employment trends between April and June 2004. All participants were asked, "How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2004 as compared to the current quarter?

[Ed. Note: so how would this help us determine payroll additions from July to September?]

Of the US employers that were surveyed, 28% expect an increase in hiring in the second quarter, while 6% plan to decrease staff levels. This creates a Net Employment Outlook of 22% (as opposed to the 28% number they cherry-picked for the Reuters handjob report). Sixty-two percent of the employers polled anticipate no change in hiring activity, and 4% are uncertain of the job outlook at their companies.

[snip]

When seasonal variations are removed from the data, the job outlook in seven of the sectors is more robust than it has been in three years, since the second quarter of 2001. Those sectors include Construction, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services. Employer confidence in hiring is most apparent within the Construction sector where the employment picture has not been so strong since 1978.

[snip]

Employment opportunities are expected to increase across the country in the second quarter. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employers in each of the four US regions plan to offer more jobs than they have since the beginning months of 2001.

[Ed. Note: so we're back to where we were when this pinhead took office? And that's supposed to reassure me in what way exactly?]

Historical Survey results
Results of this survey over recent history

[much snippage]

Just one more example of the conservative media attempting to spin things so the Sock Puppet in Chief looks good.

Posted by (: Tom :) at June 17, 2004 12:06 AM